Heat Pumps Now Outsell Gas Furnaces: What HVAC Companies Should Know

Every month, the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) reports how many HVAC units manufacturers ship in the US. Here is the full-year 2025 picture:

• Heat pumps: 3,644,596 units, down 11.6% from 2024
• Gas furnaces: 3,247,426 units, up 4.1% from 2024
• Central air conditioners: 4,104,933 units, down 26.2% from 2024

Even in a down year for heat pumps, they still outsold gas furnaces by almost 400,000 units. And central AC took the biggest hit of all.

A few big changes hit HVAC at the same time:

• The refrigerant switch. Under the EPA's rules, new home AC and heat pump systems made from January 1, 2025 had to move away from R-410A to lower-impact refrigerants like R-454B and R-32. In May 2026, the EPA removed the deadline for installing older R-410A equipment that was made before 2025, so contractors can use up existing stock.
• The end of the federal tax credit. The US Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (25C), which gave homeowners up to $2,000 for a qualifying heat pump, ended for installations after December 31, 2025. That likely pulled some purchases into 2025 and changes the math for 2026 buyers.
• Higher prices. New refrigerant systems and parts generally cost more, which can push some homeowners to repair an older system instead of replacing it.

Expect more calls like these, and have clear, simple answers ready:

• “Should I repair my old system or replace it?”
• “Is a heat pump enough for winter where I live?”
• “Can I still get a tax credit or rebate?” (Check local utility and state or provincial programs — they change often.)
• “Why is the new system more expensive than my neighbour's was?”
• “Can I keep my furnace as a backup?” (Dual-fuel setups are a common answer.)

These are not quick calls. Homeowners want to talk it through. The company that answers patiently and books a proper estimate visit usually wins the job.

• Train your team on both. Heat pumps and furnaces will both be part of the market for years.
• Push maintenance. When people repair instead of replace, tune-ups and service plans become a bigger share of revenue. See our maintenance plan guide.
• Be clear about pricing. Explain why new systems cost what they do. Confusion leads to lost sales and bad reviews.
• Never miss an estimate call. A replacement lead is worth thousands. It should never go to voicemail.

Mercvox answers every call in under a second, 24/7. It separates replacement estimates from repair calls and tune-ups, books each into the right slot on your calendar, and texts you the details. Big-ticket leads get booked while the homeowner is still on the phone, instead of drifting to the next company on Google.

• Contracting Business — AHRI 2025 year-end shipment numbers
• ACHR News — EPA removes R-410A installation deadline (2026)
• IRS — Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit