The Skilled Trades Shortage in 2026: What It Means for Your Business

If you have tried to hire a plumber, electrician, or HVAC tech lately, you already know it is hard. The data confirms it. There are more jobs to fill than there are people coming into the trades, and many experienced workers are about to retire.

For a small trade business, that means two things. Good techs are expensive and hard to keep. And every hour your techs spend on work that is not billable is an hour you cannot easily replace.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects these openings each year, on average, from 2024 to 2034:

• Electricians: about 81,000 openings a year. Jobs are expected to grow 9%, much faster than average. Median pay in May 2024 was $62,350.
• Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters: about 44,000 openings a year, with 4% growth. Median pay was $62,970.
• HVAC and refrigeration techs: about 40,100 openings a year, with 8% growth. Median pay was $59,810.

The BLS notes that many of these openings come from the need to replace workers who retire or leave the trade, not just from new demand.

BuildForce Canada tracks the construction workforce. Its 2025–2034 forecast says nearly 270,000 experienced construction workers — about one-fifth of the 2024 labour force — will retire over the next 10 years.

On top of replacing those retirees, the industry is expected to need about 111,600 more workers just to keep up with growth. BuildForce also warns that with busy projects in nearly every region, workers are less likely to move between provinces to fill gaps.

• Your techs are your most valuable asset. Losing one good tech can cost you more than a slow month.
• Wages will keep rising. When demand beats supply, pay goes up. Plan your pricing for it.
• Hiring takes longer. You may not be able to add a tech every time you get busier.
• Wasted time hurts more. Every minute a tech spends answering the phone, chasing callbacks, or driving to a job that was not properly booked is a minute of skilled labour lost.

1. Take the phone off your techs. Answering calls on a ladder is slow, unsafe, and pulls focus from paid work.
2. Book jobs with full details. Address, problem, access notes, and urgency, so techs arrive prepared and do not need a second trip.
3. Group jobs by area. Less driving means more billable hours per day.
4. Send reminders. A no-show is a wasted trip. See our guide on reducing no-shows.
5. Invest in your people. Training, fair pay, and a clear path to growth help you keep the techs you already have.

An AI receptionist does not replace a tech. It protects their time. Mercvox answers every call in under a second, books the job into your calendar with the details your tech needs, and only interrupts you for real emergencies. Your skilled people stay on skilled work.

• US Bureau of Labor Statistics — Electricians
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics — Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics — HVAC and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers
• BuildForce Canada — Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward, 2025–2034